My Age of Investment - Chapter 1529 The milk powder money of the little padded jacket

   Chapter 1529 The milk powder money of the little padded jacket

  While Xia Jingxing was busy capturing future unicorn companies in Silicon Valley and San Francisco, several institutional shareholders of Facebook were not idle and started taking action one after another.

   Good news about Facebook is constantly appearing in the market.

Kristina mentioned in her speeches and interview videos this year and even a few years ago, "Building a social home for the earth", "Strive to make the world's 2 billion netizens use Facebook and other companies under the company for more than two hours a day." Development goals and plans such as “products and services” have inexplicably started to become popular on the Internet.

   Soon after, Wall Street investment banks and hedge fund analysts led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley began to publish their analysis reports on Facebook.

   All these colorful analysis reports can find one thing in common, that is, they vigorously advocate the growth of Facebook.

  For example, Facebook’s monthly active users can only reach 1 billion, and there is still half of the blank market in the world waiting for Facebook to occupy and cultivate.

   In addition, the 2 billion netizens in the world are only statistics in 2010. Authoritative analysis agencies have given reports. It is estimated that by 2015 and 2020, the number of global netizens will reach 3 billion and 4.5 billion respectively.

  If Facebook can maintain its current market share and grow steadily, it is expected that in 2015 and 2020, monthly active users will reach an astonishing 2 billion and 3 billion, ranking first in the world.

  In addition to the increase in the number of active users, which can increase Facebook’s advertising revenue, the increase in the average usage time of users will also inject a new growth momentum into Facebook’s revenue and profit growth.

   There are internet experts and financial professionals who have received unscrupulous money even boldly predicted that Facebook will become the first company in human history with a market value exceeding one trillion US dollars!

   When this remark came out, there is no doubt that it caused great controversy.

   But then, the attention of ordinary people to Facebook began to increase, and some people even considered whether to spend their pension money to buy Facebook stocks.

  The market value of Facebook is less than 100 billion US dollars now. If it rises to a trillion dollar market value in ten years, wouldn’t it be possible to achieve a ten-fold return on investment in ten years?

  I took out the calculator on my mobile phone and calculated it in detail. The average annualized rate of return was as high as 25.89%.

However, American retail investors have never been the mainstream of the securities investment market. Even if these people were fooled by experts and limped into the market to buy Facebook stocks, the mainstream institutional investment funds have always remained calm and did not rush to buy the bottom, nor did they expose Goldman Sachs and Morgan's conspiracy.

   After all, everyone is in this circle, looking up and not looking down, there is no need to destroy other people's good deeds.

Of course, there are also a small number of thorns. I don’t know if they took the wrong medicine or something. They don’t give face to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. The pessimistic prediction is that Facebook’s stock price will fall below $10, which is The stock price is down 60% or 70% from the current basis.

   Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were naturally very angry about this kind of smashing behavior, and brought a group of younger brothers to fight with this group of people.

   Along with the war of words, there is also a stock market war, and Facebook’s stock trading volume has suddenly become very active in the past week.

   There is a lot of selling and a lot of buying, which makes Facebook’s stock price unable to rise or fall, and has been fluctuating and stagnant at around $30.

  …

   When Xia Jingxing flew to New York, the war of words was almost over, and the big investment banks headed by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley won.

   These industry giants occupy the right to speak in the industry, and there is no reason to kill a few small shrimps.

   40 Wall Street Building, top floor meeting room.

  Xia Jingxing lay lazily on the chair, listening to Liu Hai, Jiang Ping, Zhao Peng and other executives reporting their work.

Zhao Peng is the young man who succeeded Liu Hai as the leader of the U.S. equity team of Envision Capital last year. He looks like an honest and honest scholar. He is only one year older than Xia Jingxing, but he has already begun to try to manage a tens of billions of dollars in hedge funds. , The speed of promotion can only be described as riding a rocket.

It is not without voices of opposition within Envision Capital. It is believed that Xia Jingxing’s reuse of Chinese people and inexperienced young people is not good for the company’s development, and may even bring down the altar of Vision Capital, which has already been named a **** on Wall Street. .

   Until the end of last year, Zhao Peng finally got his name right, and led the stock team to hand over an answer sheet that made all opponents speechless - netted $4.5 billion for the company, ranking first in the company.

  The survival rule of Wall Street is very cruel. It pays attention to the supremacy of strength, not seniority.

   But if you want to get ahead, you must first have a good platform, especially for yellow-skinned Chinese.

   Therefore, Zhao Peng has always been very grateful for Xia Jingxing's kindness, and worked very hard. Before the end of this year, he led the team to hand in another beautiful investment report card.

   Some time ago, Xia Jingxing was very relieved to transfer the Facebook shares held by Envision Capital into the investment portfolio managed by Zhao Peng's team.

   "Daren, our team currently holds a total of 514.02 million Facebook shares, accounting for 16.8% of Facebook's total share capital after the IPO.

   Among them, the original S1 and S2 funds together hold 15.1%, and the original PE fund Autumn Equinox No. 1 holds 1.7%…”

   Hearing the precise numbers reported from Zhao Peng's mouth, Xia Jingxing nodded from time to time.

About 7.55% of the 16.8% Facebook shares held by   Envision Capital belong to him, which is half of all S funds, and the other half belongs to the blue blood aristocrats.

The 1.7% shares held by the Autumn Equinox No. 1 Fund were bought by Envision Capital from Facebook employees. The real owners are another group of dignitaries headed by Ao Guanhai, and the blue blood aristocrats also contributed to the fund. .

  Strictly speaking, Vision Capital is now only a GP manager and general partner, and no longer plays the dual roles of GP and LP as before.

   Since it is not all your own money, some things can no longer be handled as casually as before.

   "Maybe I heard some rumors. Recently, some big families on the East Coast have been stalking me, asking if Facebook will sell some of its shares after the second round of stock bans are lifted."

   Zhao Peng shook his head with a wry smile, "I can only explain to them repeatedly that the company has its own investment strategy."

  Liu Hai said angrily: "These people are really not paying attention. Can LPs interfere in GP's investment decisions at will? If you don't want us to manage their assets, then just redeem them all!"

Xia Jingxing waved his hand and signaled Liu Hai to stay calm, but he himself said very calmly, "After all, those Facebook stocks are not a small amount, they add up to nearly 10 billion US dollars, they are definitely not very willing to help Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. their rear."

Zhao Peng nodded and said: "Yes, they should have noticed a series of big moves recently made by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and knew that the two big investment banks were ready to cash out, so they hurriedly urged us to do what they thought was "correct". "decision."

  Xia Jingxing scratched his head and said with a chuckle, "These grandchildren... should we say they are smart or smart?"

  Liu Hai said bluntly: "Just follow their ideas, all the stocks are sold out, so as not to point fingers there and affect our operations."

  Xia Jingxing was a little hesitant. It was easy to sell stocks, but selling Facebook stocks meant that the relationship with these dignitaries was cut clean, and they would not take special care of Facebook in the future.

   But then again, Facebook has now gone public and has gone through the weakest stage of starting a business. It’s not time for any cat or dog to come up and bully it.

   Including his own shares in Facebook, he has also been dismantled through various arrangements. There is no need to be as cautious as in the past. If the situation is not good, he will just walk away.

7.55% of the shares held by Vision Capital, plus 5.34% of the shares held by Gao Ling Capital, Snow Lake Capital, Tiger Asia, Global Investment and other vests, and finally half of the shares held by the Rockefeller Family Office. The book shares are 2.12% of the shares. The above three parts constitute all the Facebook shares he holds, totaling 15.01%.

  If you want to cash out, as long as the subsequent rounds of stock lifting are completed, you can complete the stock sale in a very low-key way. If you handle it properly, it will not cause too much stock price volatility.

   On the contrary, as the current CEO and the company's largest shareholder, Christina holds 19.19% of the shares. If she dares to cash out on a large scale, it will definitely cause pessimism and widespread panic in the market.

The same is true for the Enoch Trust Fund. Although the institution holds a low shareholding of only 4.25%, it is also labeled as Kristina. If there is any trouble, it may be regarded as a decision made by Kristina. .

  Xia Jingxing thought for a while and decided to put the issue on hold for the time being, and said, "Tell me in detail about the recent war of words between Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley."

Zhao Peng nodded slightly, and then introduced: "Zheng Fang does not need to introduce too much. The list includes most of Wall Street, led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and the two asset management giants BlackRock Group and Pioneer Pilot Group as the cornerstones of Facebook. Investors, as the company's stock price plummeted, also lost a lot of money, so they also had analysts who came out and shouted, echoing Goldman Sachs and the others."

  Xia Jingxing nodded lightly. Facebook's current shareholder list is very luxurious. Just pull out one of them, and they are all overlords in various financial segments such as VC, PE, hedge funds, and investment banks.

   "The opposite is the organization that has recently criticized Facebook, led by Eric Jackson, the founder of the hedge fund Ironfire Capital.

   In an interview with CNBC TV, he gave a completely opposite prediction to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley for the future development of Facebook.

Goldman Sachs analysts say that in ten years, Facebook will have more than three times the number of active users and more than five times the user time of today. Considering the increase in advertising prices and the discovery of more advertising spaces, Facebook in ten years Revenue and net profit will be at least 30 times higher than they are now.

   Facebook’s current price-earnings ratio is about 100 times, corresponding to a market value of $100 billion;

   If it reaches a market value of 1 trillion US dollars in ten years, the price-earnings ratio will be around 30 times. "

Xia Jingxing tilted his head and thought about it seriously, and found that the Goldman Sachs analyst has something. First of all, he is very imaginative, secondly, his analysis is also very logical. Finally, he also used various exquisite valuation models. Perhaps Facebook companies can directly copy this analysis report as a development goal for the next ten years.

   Zhao Peng continued: "But Eric Jackson didn't see it that way. He boldly predicted that in the next 5 to 10 years, Facebook will disappear in the way of Yahoo.

Although Yahoo! has gone through several layoffs and still has nearly 10,000 employees after being acquired by Microsoft, and the website is still operating, Jackson feels that this giant is old and dead, and it will not be able to recover. If Microsoft does not stop losses in time, it will be very difficult It may be dragged down by it. "

  Xia Jingxing looked a little embarrassed. Speaking of which, Microsoft's acquisition of Yahoo was still his mediator.

Gates originally wanted to use Yahoo's strength to deal with Google in this way, but Google is still a leader in the global search engine market. Bing, which was born by absorbing the essence of the original LiveSearch and Yahoo's search engine, has been developing tepidly. .

   Yahoo's most valuable asset - Ali's shares have been stripped off by Xia Jingxing to Envision Capital, Facebook, and Ali's management, leaving Microsoft just a bunch of baggage...

  No wonder Gates has not contacted himself recently, alienated...

   Wanting to understand this, Xia Jingxing realized that he was running wildly on the road without friends.

In fact, it's not bad. Vision Capital helped Gates earn tens of billions of dollars during the financial crisis. A small pit gate is nothing, it's just an unintentional mistake, and it won't affect the friendship between the two too much - after all, Gai Ci still has a large amount of assets under management at Vision Capital.

Zhao Peng spread his hands, "Jackson's point of view is generally like this. He believes that the world is developing rapidly and market competition is becoming increasingly severe. For companies such as Facebook, which dominate the current generation of Internet, they will encounter difficulties when dealing with the arrival of the new generation of Internet. Big trouble.

The implication of    is that Facebook will follow in the footsteps of Yahoo and be killed by many rookies in the wave of the mobile Internet. "

  Xia Jingxing said with a smile: "His point of view is also somewhat reasonable. The biggest problem facing Facebook right now is the transformation to the mobile Internet, not to mention whether the transformation can be successful or not. Even if it succeeds, it needs to re-excavate the business model."

   Zhao Peng shook his head and said, "Although what Jackson said makes sense, he is only the founder of a modest hedge fund, and no one wants to listen to him.

   Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley exerted a little force, and Jackson's voice was suppressed. "

  Xia Jingxing asked, "Is it just Jackson? Abel said that several short sellers were eyeing Facebook at the same time."

   "That's right! That's why Facebook's stock price has not been able to rise recently."

   Zhao Peng said with a smile: "Jackson should be the press spokesman who was pushed to the front of the stage by the bears. The real person in charge is still fighting with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley in the stock market."

   "Have you found out who is behind Jackson?" Xia Jingxing asked.

   "I haven't found it yet, but their energy is obviously not small, and they have destroyed the stock-raising plans of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley."

  Xia Jingxing nodded slightly. Although he was leisurely watching projects in Silicon Valley and San Francisco during this time, he seemed to be oblivious to Facebook, but he always sent people to keep an eye on Facebook's stock price changes.

   The bears want to short Facebook, constantly sing about Facebook, and at the same time borrow a lot of stocks and sell them.

   Too much stock sold in a short period of time will cause the stock price to fall.

   What Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley need is to pull up a wave of stock prices when the ban is lifted, and then complete high-level cash out.

   So, two gangs of people with different goals met like this!

  The battlefield of public opinion and the battlefield of stock trading, both battlefields are being fought.

   At present, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which have deep roots, are even better.

  Xia Jingxing turned his attention to Jiang Ping, who was silent, staring at the computer intently, and said, "Brother Jiang Ping, why didn't you express your opinion?"

  Jiang Ping looked up at Xia Jingxing and said with a smile, "I'm watching a good show, it seems that the winner will be decided today."

   Hearing this, Xia Jingxing, Liu Hai, and Zhao Peng got up one after another and walked behind Jiang Ping together to watch the so-called good show.

   The K-line chart in the computer was ups and downs, and suddenly, an imposing big Yang line rose from the ground, and led Facebook's stock price to rise wildly with a powerful gesture.

  $32.4!

  $33.1!

  $34.2!

  …

   With the big buy orders, the stock price went to the $40 mark.

   Seeing this scene, Xia Jingxing said with a smile: "It's going up well, the milk powder money for the little padded jacket is here!"

   (end of this chapter)